First of all, don’t look at the date on the last post – too embarrassing. I finally have another post, however. Something I do from time to time is make basketball-related lists. So after looking at John Hollinger’s breakout players and Maurice Brooks’ MIP predictions, I decided to respond with a list of players I think have a good chance of breaking out. A lot of the players they chose struck me as either questionable, too obvious, or not really qualified to have a breakout season. Later I might address some of those picks that I disagree with, but first let’s get to my list:
2008-2009 Breakout Players – List 1 (Good Bets):
- Wilson Chandler – has been an absolute beast in summer league and preseason. Those are not sure-fire signs of a breakout, of course, but Chandler looked like a player at times late season as well. The guy is athletic, can rebound, shoot from mid-range, and he has a BODY. Quentin Richardson is weak competition for the 3-spot. As a Knick Q always seems to be injured or out of shape. He will make Chandler earn the PT, but Chandler has too much upside not to get minutes. Gallinari could be additional competition, but he starts the season injured and is just a rookie anyway.
- Nene – had an almost-breakout season two years ago, but then dealt with more injuries and a bout with cancer. Fortunately, he seems to be healthy again. He is in his prime at 26 and has been handed the starting C job in Denver by Nuggets’ management through the Marcus Camby trade. With his combination of power and athleticism, he reminds me of a cross between Eddy Curry and Amare Stoudemire. He has solid post moves, can be a better man defender than Camby, and I’ve even seen him throw some nice passes. This looks like the year for him to stay healthy and live up to his potential.
- Al Horford – made the biggest difference in the Hawks’ move from lottery to playoff team last year. He’s an outstanding impact player who is already among the best rebounders in the game. As a sophomore, he’ll show improvements in his offensive game, but most importantly he should get more touches on offense. He should increase his profile from ROY candidate to all-star candidate this season.
- Rajon Rondo – also already a very effective impact player, Rondo should start putting up significant numbers this season as the Celtics look to him to pick up some scoring and playmaking slack with the departure of Posey and the aging of the Big Three. He was already extremely talented, and that NBA title should do wonders for his confidence.
- J.R. Smith – is incredible at putting the ball in the basket. His all-around game has always been the problem, but by this season it will be good enough for the Nuggets to feel good about unleashing his offense.
- Rodney Stuckey – showed skill and confidence in the playoffs last year as a rookie. Detroit loves him, and he should get most of the reserve minutes in the Pistons backcourt this year.
List 2, Other Candidates: [These are players who are more likely to either not improve, or improve less drastically. Or they are less unexpected and therefore less of a breakout.]
- Kelenna Azubuike – showed a great all-around game last year, and is the best player in a suddenly depleted Golden State backcourt (I’m betting that Jackson and Maggette play the forward spots, after all, Don Nelson is still the coach.)
- Carl Landry – had great per-minute numbers last year, and could be the best all-around PF on the Rockets’ roster. However, he has to fight for minutes with the talented Luis Scola, gritty Chuck Hayes, and possibly even a small-ball PF in Artest or Battier.
- Mike Conley Jr. – showed some promise last year, and will probably show more skills and confidence this year. I was a little disappointed in his rookie season, so we’ll see how he does this year. But the opportunity is there as the Grizzlies see him as their PG of the future.
- Ramon Sessions – showed amazing promise after spending most of last year in the D-league. If I’m not mistaken, he set the franchise assist record in one game and hit a game-winner over Gilbert Arenas in another. However, it might have been a fluke or (more likely) he might need a little more seasoning before he starts running things in Milwaukee.
- Randy Foye – looks to be the PG the Timberwolves are highest on right now. Telfair is a good distributor, but can’t shoot straight and his height is a disadvantage. Foye looks like kind of the opposite, so we’ll see if he can live up to his potential as a scorer while learning how to set up his teammates as well.
- Ronnie Brewer – is another guy that has already been making an impact in a non-featured role. He should keep getting better, but I don’t see him taking over as a 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd option in Utah, so any improvement will not appear to be very drastic. He already does a good job in his role. However, he could make himself more valuable to the Jazz (and boost his numbers) with an improved 3-point shot.
- Matt Barnes – already had a semi-breakout year, but then had a real disappointing season last year in Golden State. If he can bring the energy and 3-point shooting he showed two years ago in GS, he should easily get the bulk of the Suns’ SF minutes (sorry, Grant Hill). If he does, and Phoenix keeps up its fast-paced offense, his numbers should end up looking pretty good.
- Kevin Durant – is a super obvious choice here. Sorry. But his improvement this year should exceed what most people will give him credit for. Thrust into the role of 1st option as a rookie last season, Durant showed his potential but was actually not that effective. He improved by leaps and bounds throughout the year though, so look for him to make huge strides in his scoring efficiency, basketball IQ, physique, and all-around game this season.
As for Hollinger’s list, I really don’t think all-star caliber players like Rudy Gay, Al Jefferson, Amare Stoudemire, and Deron Williams can be breakout candidates. Even if they get better, we already knew they were elite. Both Brooks and Hollinger like Devin Harris, but hasn’t he always been a steady-improvement kind of guy? Getting out of Avery Johnson’s system might help his numbers, but he’s still going to be a super-quick point guard with average court vision and shooting ability. He could turn into a poor man’s Tony Parker, but isn’t that kind of who he was already? He’s certainly not going to become Steve Nash. And he’s still playing alongside Vince Carter in the backcourt. Carter is going to handle the ball on the perimeter for a lot of plays, and there’s even a chance that he’ll end up the Nets’ assist leader rather than Harris. It just seems like Harris is already half-way established, and he doesn’t have all that much potential left. As for Chris Duhon, he might be the worst of NY’s three PGs. Even if he ends up playing the best, being stuck in a 3-player logjam is never the way to win MIP. Sorry Mo.
Every year there are players I’m sure will break out who end up doing nothing. But I totally called Kevin Martin’s breakout season a couple years ago (he was robbed of the MIP that year, by the way). So we’ll see how accurate these end up being.
