Even though I have a ton of work to do right now, I thought I should get some of my predictions on record before the NBA season officially tips off later tonight. After seeing The Painted Area’s over/under predictions, I had to take up the challenge. And I figured I’d throw in some playoff and award predictions while I’m at it.
First, playoff teams for each conference:
East
- Boston Celtics
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Detroit Pistons
- Orlando Magic
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Toronto Raptors
- Atlanta Hawks
- New Jersey Nets
The first seven picks felt really safe and easy. All of those teams were in the playoffs last year and they all feel to me like they have the potential to be better this year. That last spot, though, is so wide open. The Wizards could be back in the playoffs again. However, Arenas is having more injury problems, Jamison is a year older, and they’re losing underrated starting C Brendan Haywood for a long time. So I have them dropping out. I kind of like Milwaukee offensively (and Skiles should help), but I don’t know if they have a standout defensive player. But really, with the exceptions of maybe NY and Chicago, I can see any Eastern team getting that 8th spot. In the scheme of things, it’s not going to be that important, and I kind of felt like making a bold pick, so I went with New Jersey. Devin Harris and Vince Carter are one of the best backcourts in the East, and the team brought in a lot of veterans like Dooling, Simmons, and Najera to boost the bench. Their frontcourt is a huge question mark, but they have so many talented young players up there (Yi, Sean Williams, Brook Lopez, Josh Boone, Ryan Anderson) that one or two of them have to make an impact, right? Besides their youth, one thing that really worries me is that Vince Carter is a great candidate to get traded mid-season, which would pretty much end their playoff chances. But we’ll see how that ends up. Now for the West…
West
- Los Angeles Lakers
- New Orleans Hornets
- Houston Rockets
- San Antonio Spurs
- Dallas Mavericks
- Utah Jazz
- Phoenix Suns
- Denver Nuggets
I really wanted to pick the Clippers, but it seems like a lot more could go wrong or end up not working for them compared to the Nuggets, who should be pretty similar to last year as long as Nene can somewhat make up for the loss of Camby. I think the Spurs will continue to decline ever so slightly (but stay at an elite level), the Mavs will have a bounce-back year (better coaching, J-Kidd will be good for Josh Howard, and the return of DeSagana Diop – don’t sleep), and the Suns will get worse but still be pretty good (can a team with Nash and Amare ever be bad?). Once again, the West playoff race should be brutal, although the West may host more than its share of cellar-dwellars as well. I’m just realizing that these are exactly last year’s teams in a similar order, so nothing too earth-shattering here. But the top of the West is just so good that if any of these teams drops out (besides maybe the Nuggets), it will be considered a huge disappointment. Almost all of these teams are thinking championship. I bet one of them will drop out, but I have no idea which one so I’ll keep playing it safe.
Bottom Three
Because the rest of the league will be pinning its hopes on the draft lottery for the top 3 picks, I’ll take a guess as to which teams will be the 3 worst. In order from best to worst:
- New York Knicks
-so little talent, and the talent they do have is ill-fitting. Good coach though. - Oklahoma City Thunder
-terrible name, terrible logo, terrible karma, and a really young roster. - Memphis Grizzlies
-a team with really young talent in the backcourt, and barely any talent in the frontcourt. Sounds like a losing recipe (but a solid rebuilding project) to me.
Finals and Champions
For my Finals and Championship picks, I’m going to go with my heart. I’m picking Cleveland to win the East and New Orleans to win the West, with the Cavs prevailing in the Finals and LeBron winning his first Finals MVP award. Somehow I doubt it will turn out exactly that way, but I can hope. If Boston or Phoenix end up winning it all I will be pretty happy too.
A quick stab at the regular season awards:
MVP: LeBron
Rookie of the Year: Derrick Rose
Defensive Player of the Year: Kevin Garnett
Most Improves Player: Nene
Sixth Man of the Year: Ron Artest
I would not have picked Derrick Rose for Rookie of the Year, except for the fact that he will probably have more responsibility than any other rookie this season. As we saw with Durant last year, taking on a role with a lot of responsibility can help even a very raw player’s ROY candidacy. If Nene can play a full season he should be a great feel-good story and most improved candidate. Andrei Kirilenko looks to be Utah’s sixth man this year and he could give Artest a run for his money, but if Artest comes off the bench for Houston (which I think would make a lot of sense) he should be a lock for Sixth Man of the Year.
Now for the over/under predictions…
The Painted Area picked on seven of them, so likewise I’ll go with seven of my own.
Over:
Boston – 54.5
Atlanta – 36.5
LA Lakers – 54.5
New Orleans – 51.5
LA Clippers – 33.5
Under:
New York – 31.5
Portland – 44.5
I directly contradicted the Painted Area on some of those (POR, NYK, ATL), so it should be interesting to see what happens. I’m also pretty confident that Cleveland will go over 48.5 wins and Chicago will go under 40.5, but the ones listed above will be my official picks.
Inevitably, a lot of these picks are going to end up being wrong. Injuries to key players are largely unpredictable and have a huge influence on team success. And I have no unique insight into these questions, only what I see in the few games I watch and (mostly) what I read about teams and players in the press/blogosphere, so I am going to misjudge some situations as well. No one knows exactly what will happen. But I feel like I stay pretty well informed, and that my predictions have some good sense behind them. So hopefully these teams will prove me right and I won’t end up looking like a moron!
