I think, and Cavs management obviously agrees, that Richardson would be a great fit on this team. He is a great scorer, and actually (and maybe more importantly) a very good outside shooter. He’s also a big guard who can rebound well and backup the SF position. However, this team finally has some scorers and good outside shooters, and Wally is big enough to play the 3 as well.

What really excites me about Richardson is that he would give the Cavs their only other exceptional athlete outside of LeBron. Ever since last year’s all-star game, I’ve been fantasizing about LeBron throwing up alley-oops on the break to a super-athletic Cavaliers teammate. Who can LeBron throw lobs to on this team? That’s a rhetorical question, of course. Richardson would make my fantasy a reality.

J-Rich would super-charge this team’s transition offense, and give the Cavs a totally unguardable perimeter trio with LeBron and Mo Williams. Of course, it’s a waste of time to talk about completely implausible trade proposals. Could a deal for Richardson actually happen?

Even though the Bobcats aren’t offering him at the moment, I really think it could. For one, the ‘Cats are off to a disappointing start without any obvious answers for the future. This is the situation that usually drives teams to make rebuilding moves such as shedding salary.

Secondly, they have been losing money for a while and are a mess financially, with the ownership rumored to be looking for opportunities to cut costs and sell the team. They’re already reported to be shopping Gerald Wallace, arguably their best player. Wallace is younger than Richardson and has a longer tenure with the organization. He has the longer deal, but the salary is reasonable and Richardson makes more money per year. He has the ‘Cats biggest contract and a trade for Szczerbiak would save them from paying the last two years of it–not a small benefit for them.

Third, it seems to me that Richardson hasn’t been the best fit for them. His perimeter scoring is arguably superfluous with Wallace already on the team. I thought his addition last year would make them a playoff team. Instead they got worse. And their record at this point is the team’s worst since its first season (although Richardson has sat out games). It seems to me that the Bobcats would be better off playing a sharpshooting role-player (like Matt Carroll) alongside Wallace on the wing, while focusing on finding the interior scorer they need. And given that Richardson is the oldest of their standout players, I don’t see why they wouldn’t at least offer him before Wallace in trade discussions.

It’s possible they could find a better deal for J-Rich, but given the 2010 free agency frenzy, there is not a huge market right now for long-term contracts. And I don’t see the Bobcats getting a player who could make them truly competitive in the short term. A deal for Szczerbiak would be practically ideal for them in the long term, easing financial problems while giving them more options in free agency (and also not hurting their draft position).

I believe it would be worth it for the Cavs to make a deal for Richardson, but it would come with some complications. The team would not be worse off for losing Szczerbiak, but they would be adding a long-term salary commitment. This is the reason why a trade like this has to be for the right player. As it stands, the Cavs are in a position to be able to offer a max-contract to an all-star free agent in 2010 while re-signing LeBron. That class famously includes Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, among other standouts. Adding Richardson would preclude most of those amazing free agent possibilities. So this really has to be a championship move, and there would be opportunity costs.

Also, they would be adding an all-star caliber player to an already deep backcourt rotation without any important subtractions. As Marlo Stanfield might say, “this seems like one of those good problems.” It would be an issue that the team would have to address, however. And I would never want to trade away any of our quality backcourt players to solve the problem, because players will get injured. When that happens we’ll be thrilled to have guys like Delonte and Boobie waiting in the wings.

So I was thinking about some ways the Cavs could solve the minutes issue if this deal were to happen. First, I think they could shorten the minutes of their veteran bigs, bringing LeBron up to backup the 4 spot for more minutes each game. This would hopefully not bruise any egos and allow the old guys to get more rest and stay productive. Especially with Richardson, this would really allow the team to explore how they can use small-ball lineups to their advantage, which they’ve been trying to do more this year anyway. However, the team would have to really focus on getting LeBron comfortable with playing the post (where, to my eyes, he still looks pretty uncomfortable) and the 4 spot in general.

Also, they would have to cut some end-of-the-bench guys out of the rotation, for the most part. Unfortunately, that includes some young guys, and hopefully the team wouldn’t have to stick to this method too strictly.

Adding Richardson would also make it possible for the Cavs to allow LeBron to rest more, which is something they’ve said they wanted to do. However, I don’t think they can go too far with this. Rest him in blowouts, but the guy is the best player in the world and still under 24 years old. You’ve got to give him at least 38 minutes a night, which is about where he’s at right now.

So just to clarify how this all could work, I decided to make a little chart of the minutes distribution for this hypothetical roster.

Totals:
Lebron – 38 mins.
J. Rich - 34 mins.
Mo – 34 mins.
Anderson – 30 mins.
Delonte - 28 mins.
Big Z – 28 mins.
Big Ben - 28 mins.
Boobie – 20 mins.

[cuts out: Sasha, J.J., Lorenzen, Kinsey]

This type of distribution would give a pretty appropriate role to all the team’s quality players, and allow guys to step up whenever injuries occur. The really unfortunate part is that it leaves no playing time for the young guys, but hopefully between injuries and maybe resting the big guys more, the team could work them in sometimes. For all its drawbacks, I think this trade could make the Cavs a powerhouse.

However, there are other options out there. Another guy who would fulfill my super-athletic wingman fantasy would be Vince Carter. I would actually prefer Vince, except for the issue of his age combined with the length of his contract. He’s 4 years older than J-Rich and turns 32 this season. He’s still as good as ever, and is the better player of the two right now. I’m sure a trade to Cleveland would stimulate his appetite for major playoff success and motivate him to play selflessly (which I think he already does for the most part) and go all out. But he couldn’t remain that super-athletic partner for very long, and his deal goes through 2012. That would hurt the Cavs in the long term, and the Cavs should be thinking long term because they’re building around a star who is still 23. Besides, given how badly the Nets want to sign LeBron, I think they would avoid at all costs a deal that might help LeBron win a championship with his current team. So I think this deal has more drawbacks and is less likely than a deal for Jason Richardson.

Although it is worth mentioning that the Nets are also going through some financial hard times, and there has already been some talk about this trade scenario in the media.

There is another deal that I would love to see, however. Mike Miller. The actual deal (as I tested it on the RealGM Trade Checker) would probably also include Brian Cardinal, which would be fine for the Cavs. Miller is a fantastic shooter, which is a valuable skill for a LeBron sidekick. He wouldn’t do much for my fantasy of flashy alley-oops, but he is also a great all-around player who will play unselfishly, rebound, and make good passes. He is about the same age as Richardson, and might age better due to less dependence on athleticism. What might make this deal even better than the Richardson deal, however, is that it would preserve the Cavs’ 2010 cap flexibility, as both incoming deals expire after next season. Considering stature and ego, Miller probably demands slightly fewer minutes than a player like Richardson or Carter, which would ease the adjustment. This trade would have virtually no downside for the Cavs.

I would guess that this deal is less likely to happen, however. The T-Wolves just traded for Miller, so they probably like him. Also, since the Miller/Cardinal contracts expire within 2 years, the Wolves would not be saving that much money. I don’t see what good it does them to have these guys around given that they are still building for the future, but these deals aren’t killing their cap flexibility either. They will be tradeable expiring contracts by next season, and they allow for cap room in 2010.

If I were in charge in Minnesota, I would definitely consider it though. They would have more free agent options next summer–when there might not be much competition in the bidding. They would be sending Miller to a team outside of their conference. Miller’s age does not really fit with their timetable, so losing him would not hurt them at all in the long term, which is what they should really care about. And they would save about $15 million. It is something they should consider, and hopefully they will.

Having said all that, I will also say that I think holding onto Szczerbiak and the cap space is a good option as well. If it can retain LeBron’s loyalty, Cleveland will be a very attractive free agent destination for championship-minded stars in 2010. A lot of the potential free agents are friends of LeBron from the same draft class, which also can’t hurt. As I said before, only the very best deals would be worth giving up those future possibilities, however remote they may seem right now.

And most importantly, the Cavs can win a championship, this season, with this team. Certain players might help, but there is no urgent need for a shakeup. Right after a loss, the Cavs are still sitting in third place in league standings. So if no home-run deal materializes, we can still enjoy this team and have confidence for this season and the future.

First, playoff teams for each conference:

East

1. Boston Celtics
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
3. Detroit Pistons
4. Orlando Magic
5. Philadelphia 76ers
6. Toronto Raptors
7. Atlanta Hawks
8. New Jersey Nets

The first seven picks felt really safe and easy. All of those teams were in the playoffs last year and they all feel to me like they have the potential to be better this year. That last spot, though, is so wide open. The Wizards could be back in the playoffs again. However, Arenas is having more injury problems, Jamison is a year older, and they’re losing underrated starting C Brendan Haywood for a long time. So I have them dropping out. I kind of like Milwaukee offensively (and Skiles should help), but I don’t know if they have a standout defensive player. But really, with the exceptions of maybe NY and Chicago, I can see any Eastern team getting that 8th spot. In the scheme of things, it’s not going to be that important, and I kind of felt like making a bold pick, so I went with New Jersey. Devin Harris and Vince Carter are one of the best backcourts in the East, and the team brought in a lot of veterans like Dooling, Simmons, and Najera to boost the bench. Their frontcourt is a huge question mark, but they have so many talented young players up there (Yi, Sean Williams, Brook Lopez, Josh Boone, Ryan Anderson) that one or two of them have to make an impact, right? Besides their youth, one thing that really worries me is that Vince Carter is a great candidate to get traded mid-season, which would pretty much end their playoff chances. But we’ll see how that ends up. Now for the West…

West

1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. New Orleans Hornets
3. Houston Rockets
4. San Antonio Spurs
5. Dallas Mavericks
6. Utah Jazz
7. Phoenix Suns
8. Denver Nuggets

I really wanted to pick the Clippers, but it seems like a lot more could go wrong or end up not working for them compared to the Nuggets, who should be pretty similar to last year as long as Nene can somewhat make up for the loss of Camby. I think the Spurs will continue to decline ever so slightly (but stay at an elite level), the Mavs will have a bounce-back year (better coaching, J-Kidd will be good for Josh Howard, and the return of DeSagana Diop – don’t sleep), and the Suns will get worse but still be pretty good (can a team with Nash and Amare ever be bad?). Once again, the West playoff race should be brutal, although the West may host more than its share of cellar-dwellars as well. I’m just realizing that these are exactly last year’s teams in a similar order, so nothing too earth-shattering here. But the top of the West is just so good that if any of these teams drops out (besides maybe the Nuggets), it will be considered a huge disappointment. Almost all of these teams are thinking championship. I bet one of them will drop out, but I have no idea which one so I’ll keep playing it safe.

Bottom Three

Because the rest of the league will be pinning its hopes on the draft lottery for the top 3 picks, I’ll take a guess as to which teams will be the 3 worst. In order from best to worst:

• New York Knicks
  -so little talent, and the talent they do have is ill-fitting. Good coach though.
• Oklahoma City Thunder
  -terrible name, terrible logo, terrible karma, and a really young roster.
• Memphis Grizzlies
  -a team with really young talent in the backcourt, and barely any talent in the frontcourt. Sounds like a losing recipe (but a solid rebuilding project) to me.

Finals and Champions

For my Finals and Championship picks, I’m going to go with my heart. I’m picking Cleveland to win the East and New Orleans to win the West, with the Cavs prevailing in the Finals and LeBron winning his first Finals MVP award. Somehow I doubt it will turn out exactly that way, but I can hope. If Boston or Phoenix end up winning it all I will be pretty happy too.

A quick stab at the regular season awards:

MVP: LeBron
Rookie of the Year: Derrick Rose
Defensive Player of the Year: Kevin Garnett
Most Improves Player: Nene
Sixth Man of the Year: Ron Artest

I would not have picked Derrick Rose for Rookie of the Year, except for the fact that he will probably have more responsibility than any other rookie this season. As we saw with Durant last year, taking on a role with a lot of responsibility can help even a very raw player’s ROY candidacy. If Nene can play a full season he should be a great feel-good story and most improved candidate. Andrei Kirilenko looks to be Utah’s sixth man this year and he could give Artest a run for his money, but if Artest comes off the bench for Houston (which I think would make a lot of sense) he should be a lock for Sixth Man of the Year.

Now for the over/under predictions…

The Painted Area picked on seven of them, so likewise I’ll go with seven of my own.

Over:
Boston – 54.5
Atlanta – 36.5
LA Lakers – 54.5
New Orleans – 51.5
LA Clippers – 33.5

Under:
New York – 31.5
Portland – 44.5

I directly contradicted the Painted Area on some of those (POR, NYK, ATL), so it should be interesting to see what happens. I’m also pretty confident that Cleveland will go over 48.5 wins and Chicago will go under 40.5, but the ones listed above will be my official picks.

Inevitably, a lot of these picks are going to end up being wrong. Injuries to key players are largely unpredictable and have a huge influence on team success. And I have no unique insight into these questions, only what I see in the few games I watch and (mostly) what I read about teams and players in the press/blogosphere, so I am going to misjudge some situations as well. No one knows exactly what will happen. But I feel like I stay pretty well informed, and that my predictions have some good sense behind them. So hopefully these teams will prove me right and I won’t end up looking like a moron!

2008-2009 Breakout Players – List 1 (Good Bets):

• Wilson Chandler – has been an absolute beast in summer league and preseason. Those are not sure-fire signs of a breakout, of course, but Chandler looked like a player at times late season as well. The guy is athletic, can rebound, shoot from mid-range, and he has a BODY. Quentin Richardson is weak competition for the 3-spot. As a Knick Q always seems to be injured or out of shape. He will make Chandler earn the PT, but Chandler has too much upside not to get minutes. Gallinari could be additional competition, but he starts the season injured and is just a rookie anyway.
• Nene – had an almost-breakout season two years ago, but then dealt with more injuries and a bout with cancer. Fortunately, he seems to be healthy again. He is in his prime at 26 and has been handed the starting C job in Denver by Nuggets’ management through the Marcus Camby trade. With his combination of power and athleticism, he reminds me of a cross between Eddy Curry and Amare Stoudemire. He has solid post moves, can be a better man defender than Camby, and I’ve even seen him throw some nice passes. This looks like the year for him to stay healthy and live up to his potential.
• Al Horford – made the biggest difference in the Hawks’ move from lottery to playoff team last year. He’s an outstanding impact player who is already among the best rebounders in the game. As a sophomore, he’ll show improvements in his offensive game, but most importantly he should get more touches on offense. He should increase his profile from ROY candidate to all-star candidate this season.
• Rajon Rondo – also already a very effective impact player, Rondo should start putting up significant numbers this season as the Celtics look to him to pick up some scoring and playmaking slack with the departure of Posey and the aging of the Big Three. He was already extremely talented, and that NBA title should do wonders for his confidence.
• J.R. Smith – is incredible at putting the ball in the basket. His all-around game has always been the problem, but by this season it will be good enough for the Nuggets to feel good about unleashing his offense.
• Rodney Stuckey – showed skill and confidence in the playoffs last year as a rookie. Detroit loves him, and he should get most of the reserve minutes in the Pistons backcourt this year.

List 2, Other Candidates: [These are players who are more likely to either not improve, or improve less drastically. Or they are less unexpected and therefore less of a breakout.]

• Kelenna Azubuike – showed a great all-around game last year, and is the best player in a suddenly depleted Golden State backcourt (I’m betting that Jackson and Maggette play the forward spots, after all, Don Nelson is still the coach.)
• Carl Landry – had great per-minute numbers last year, and could be the best all-around PF on the Rockets’ roster. However, he has to fight for minutes with the talented Luis Scola, gritty Chuck Hayes, and possibly even a small-ball PF in Artest or Battier.
• Mike Conley Jr. – showed some promise last year, and will probably show more skills and confidence this year. I was a little disappointed in his rookie season, so we’ll see how he does this year. But the opportunity is there as the Grizzlies see him as their PG of the future.
• Ramon Sessions – showed amazing promise after spending most of last year in the D-league. If I’m not mistaken, he set the franchise assist record in one game and hit a game-winner over Gilbert Arenas in another. However, it might have been a fluke or (more likely) he might need a little more seasoning before he starts running things in Milwaukee.
• Randy Foye – looks to be the PG the Timberwolves are highest on right now. Telfair is a good distributor, but can’t shoot straight and his height is a disadvantage. Foye looks like kind of the opposite, so we’ll see if he can live up to his potential as a scorer while learning how to set up his teammates as well.
• Ronnie Brewer – is another guy that has already been making an impact in a non-featured role. He should keep getting better, but I don’t see him taking over as a 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd option in Utah, so any improvement will not appear to be very drastic. He already does a good job in his role. However, he could make himself more valuable to the Jazz (and boost his numbers) with an improved 3-point shot.
• Matt Barnes – already had a semi-breakout year, but then had a real disappointing season last year in Golden State. If he can bring the energy and 3-point shooting he showed two years ago in GS, he should easily get the bulk of the Suns’ SF minutes (sorry, Grant Hill). If he does, and Phoenix keeps up its fast-paced offense, his numbers should end up looking pretty good.
• Kevin Durant – is a super obvious choice here. Sorry. But his improvement this year should exceed what most people will give him credit for. Thrust into the role of 1st option as a rookie last season, Durant showed his potential but was actually not that effective. He improved by leaps and bounds throughout the year though, so look for him to make huge strides in his scoring efficiency, basketball IQ, physique, and all-around game this season.

As for Hollinger’s list, I really don’t think all-star caliber players like Rudy Gay, Al Jefferson, Amare Stoudemire, and Deron Williams can be breakout candidates. Even if they get better, we already knew they were elite. Both Brooks and Hollinger like Devin Harris, but hasn’t he always been a steady-improvement kind of guy? Getting out of Avery Johnson’s system might help his numbers, but he’s still going to be a super-quick point guard with average court vision and shooting ability. He could turn into a poor man’s Tony Parker, but isn’t that kind of who he was already? He’s certainly not going to become Steve Nash. And he’s still playing alongside Vince Carter in the backcourt. Carter is going to handle the ball on the perimeter for a lot of plays, and there’s even a chance that he’ll end up the Nets’ assist leader rather than Harris. It just seems like Harris is already half-way established, and he doesn’t have all that much potential left. As for Chris Duhon, he might be the worst of NY’s three PGs. Even if he ends up playing the best, being stuck in a 3-player logjam is never the way to win MIP. Sorry Mo.

Every year there are players I’m sure will break out who end up doing nothing. But I totally called Kevin Martin’s breakout season a couple years ago (he was robbed of the MIP that year, by the way). So we’ll see how accurate these end up being.

But I do enjoy playing, watching, and reading about basketball. My NBA addiction is pretty serious. I have a lot of opinions that I feel like airing (and a bit of a procrastination problem), so I thought this would be a good place to air them.

Technically, this blog will be themed around the Cavaliers. They are the local team for me when I am at school, and I love watching the heroics of LeBron James. More than any other team, I hope they can bring home the championship next season. However, I’m not really a traditional fan in that I’m not attached to a particular franchise or city team. I didn’t grow up in any NBA cities, and I really only become a fan of a team based on the personas and playing styles of that team’s key players. So, as players change teams, my favorite teams change. I also like and dislike a lot of different players and teams around the rest of the league (for reasons that are probably pretty silly in the scheme of things).

Finally, there’s a good chance that I will seriously neglect this blog for long periods of time. If I tend to my responsibilities in life, I probably won’t have much time left over to write in here, and writing is a very time-consuming process for me anyway. So it’s best to keep expectations low. Nevertheless, welcome! And I hope you enjoy my blog!